Global loss of climatically suitable areas for durum wheat growth in the future

Durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) is a minor cereal crop of key importance for making pasta, couscous, burghul, puddings, bread and many other traditional foods, due to its physical chemical characteristics. The global demand high-quality food made has been increasing, which poses challenge in the face climate change. Major share production currently located semi-arid climates, where risk extremes such as drought heat stress will likely substantially increase future. To provide first estimate future arable land climatically suitable growing wheat, we develop suitability model based on support vector machines. current total grow rainfed around 13%. Climate change may decrease area by 19% at mid-century 48% end century. Widespread loss areas foreseen Mediterranean regions northern America. On hand, become central western Europe, while largest gain estimated some parts Russia. overall net requires development adoption effective sustainable strategies stabilize adapt entire supply chain. Our study also clearly demonstrates limiting warming levels well below 2 °C century, would limit areas.